Features
Strategic Ramifications Of The Egyptian Unrest
The prospect of an imminent, uncontrolled change in the leadership of Egypt, or other political paralysis in the state, as a result of growing popular unrest which began in the country in earnest on January 25, 2011, has clear strategic ramifications, dependent on how the matter resolves itself.
By January 30, 2011, the key to the transition of power in Egypt was the Army. The domestic intelligence service under the Interior Ministry had failed to anticipate, or deal with, the crisis; the foreign intelligence service, from which the new Vice-President emerged, lacks a power base. So, as the matter progressed, only the Army could maintain stability.
President Hosni Mubarak’s health is now so poor that it was considered surprising that he did not take steps in 2009 to begin a transition of power, but his son and named heir, Gamal, himself had developed no meaningful power base other than in certain financial and political sectors. That “base” provided no power in the context of popular discontent.
President Hosni Mubarak, 82, on Saturday, January 29, 2011, dismissed his entire Cabinet, but it was likely that Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawy Soliman, 75, will be called back into a new Cabinet, given the fact that he has effectively managed the Armed Forces as head of the Operations Authority (effectively head of the Army and joint services) and, since 1993, as Defense Minister. Field Marshal Tantawy is solid, discreet, modest, and has a strongly loyal following within the military. He had also been Commander of the Presidential Guard, Minister for Defense Production, and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces (1991). Many in the military consider that he should have acted earlier to cause President Mubarak to retire, and to put a stop to the President’s belief that he could make his son, Gamal Mubarak, 47, into a leader to succeed to the Presidency.
The fact that the President, on Friday, January 28, 2011, called on the Armed Forces to essentially replace the Police and the Security Police essentially put Field Marshal Tantawy in command of the situation. The rivalry between the Defense Ministry and the Interior Ministry — which controls the General Directorate for State Security (the Security Policy, a national paramilitary gendarmerie) — has been endemic in Egypt for decades. The Interior Ministry manifestly failed to anticipate the level of frustration throughout Egyptian society, and neither did it plan an effective response to any large-scale unrest.
The Armed Forces under the legendary then-Defense Minister, Field Marshal Mohamed Abdel-Halim Abu-Ghazala, during the Anwar as-Sadat Presidency (1970-1981) and later, were used to put down a mutiny, in February 1986, by 17,000 Security Police. A colleague and friend of this writer (and the likes of US Secretary of State Alexander Haig) from 1974 until his death on September 6, 2008, Field Marshal Abu-Ghazala was awarded the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA) Gold Star Award for Outstanding Contributions to Strategic Progress in 1986. Abu-Ghazala, like his friend, Field Marshal Tantawy, was seen as a Presidential contender, but both of them chose — for the sake of stability in Egypt — not to challenge Mubarak’s lackluster Presidency.
The measure of President Mubarak’s understanding that Egypt is moving rapidly toward political transition came when he named, on January 29, 2011, a Vice-President, the first he has appointed since he took office in 1981. He had promised the post to then-Defense Minister Abu-Ghazala, and later it was reported he would offer it to current Defense Minister Tantawy. But Mubarak was full of fear that he might be removed and succeeded.
Now he has named Omar Suleiman, the chief of the Mukhabarat el-Aama — the general intelligence and security service, responsible for foreign intelligence — to the Vice-Presidency. He also named retired Air Chief Marshal and former Air Force commander and head of civil aviation Ahmed Shafik, 69, as prime minister, replacing Ahmed Nazif, who had been Prime Minister since 2004, and who was forced to resign with the entire Cabinet during the current unrest.
One commentator remarked, after the start of the rioting in Egypt on January 25, 2011, that “repression” of Egyptian society was not the reason for popular unrest, but rather the frustration was finally boiling over because Mubarak failed to offer Egyptians “a dream”. What was remarkable about President Mubarak’s tenure was his absolute failure to project any personal charisma or to paint a “dream” for the Egyptian people, in stark contrast to his predecessor, Anwar as-Sadat, whose 1978 autobiography, In Search of Identity, expressly outlined to the Egyptian people who they were, and what they sought.
In the Preface to the Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook on Egypt, in 1995, I noted: “If Egypt remains strong, and in all senses a ‘power’ in its regional contexts, then world events will move in one direction. If Egypt’s strength is undermined, then world events (and not merely those of the Middle East) will move along a far more uncertain and violent path.”
It is significant that Egypt began to fail to be “strong”, internally, within a few years of that 1995 book. It became less resilient as President Mubarak became more isolated and the inspiration offered by Sadat began to erode. This resulted in the rise in Egypt of the Islamists who had killed Sadat, and the growing empowerment of the veteran Islamists from the Afghan conflict, including such figures as Osama bid Laden (who had spent considerable time living in Egypt), and Ayman al-Zawahiri, et al.
The reality was that Mubarak’s management-style Presidency could not offer the requisite hope — because “hope” translates to meaning and identity — to Egyptian society as it was transitioning from poverty and unemployment to gradually growing wealth. Hope equates to patience.
What are the areas of strategic concern, then, as Egypt transforms? The following are some considerations:
1. Security and stability of Suez Canal sea traffic: Even temporary disruption, or the threat of disruptions, to traffic through the Suez Canal would disturb global trade, given that the Canal and the associated SUMED pipeline (which takes crude oil north from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean) are responsible for significant volumes of world trade, including energy shipments. Threats of delays or closure of the Canal and/or the SUMED, or hints of increased danger to shipping, would significantly increase insurance costs on trade, and would begin to have shippers consider moving Suez traffic, once again, to the longer and more expensive Cape of Good Hope seaway.
2. Disruption of Nile waters negotiations and matters relating: Egypt’s support for the emerging independence of South Sudan was based on that new state’s control over a considerable stretch of the White Nile, at a time when Egypt has been attempting to dominate new treaty discussions regarding Nile (White and Blue Nile) water usage and riparian rights. Already, Egyptian ability to negotiate with the Nile River states has entered an hiatus, and unless the Egyptian Government is able to re-form quickly around a strong, regionally-focused model, Egypt will have lost all momentum on securing what it feels is its dominance over Nile water controls. In the short term, the Egyptian situation could provide tremors into northern and South Sudan, and in South Sudan this will mean that the US, in particular, could be asked to step up support activities to that country’s independence transition.
Such a sudden loss of Egypt’s Nile position will radically affect its long-standing proxy “war” to keep Ethiopia — which controls the headwaters and flow of the Blue Nile, the Nile’s biggest volume input — landlocked and strategically impotent. This means that Egypt’s ability to block African Union (AU) and Arab League denial of sovereignty recognition of the Republic of Somaliland will decline or disappear for the time being. Already Egypt’s influence enabled an Islamist take-over of Somaliland, possibly moving that state toward re-integration with the anomic Somalia state. Equally importantly, the interregnum in Egypt will mean a cessation of Cairo’s support for Eritrea and the proxy war which Eritrea facilitates — but which others, particularly Egypt, pay — against Ethiopia through the arming, logistics, training, etc., of anti-Ethiopian groups such as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), etc.
3. Overall security of the Red Sea states and SLOC: Egypt has been vital to sustaining the tenuous viability of the state of Eritrea, because Cairo regarded Eritrean loyalty as a key means of sustaining Egyptian power projection into the Red Sea (and ensuring the security of the Red Sea/Suez Sea Lane of Communication), and to deny such access to Israel. Absent Egyptian support, the Eritrean Government of Pres. Isayas Afewerke will begin to feel its isolation and economic deprivation, and may well, on its own, accelerate new pressures for conflict with Ethiopia to distract local populations from the growing deprivation in the country.
4. The Israel situation: A protracted interregnum in Egypt, or a move by Egypt toward Islamist or populist governance could bring about a decline in the stability of the Egypt-Israel peace agreement, and provide an opening of the border with the HAMAS-controlled Gaza region of the Palestinian Authority lands. This would contribute to the ability of Iran to escalate pressures on Israel, and not only further isolate Israel, but also isolate Jordan, and, to an extent, Saudi Arabia. The threat of direct military engagement between Israel and Egypt may remain low, but a move by Egypt away from being a predictable part of the regional peace system would, by default, accelerate the growth of the Iran-Syria-HizbAllah-HAMAS ability to strategically threaten Israel. Moreover, the transforming situation would also inhibit the West Bank Palestinian Authority Government.
5. Eastern Mediterranean stability: The instability, and the possible move toward greater Islamist influence, in Egypt reinforces the direction — and potential for control of the regional agenda — by the Islamist Government of Turkey. It is certainly possible that the transformed mood of the Eastern Mediterranean could inhibit external investment in the development of the major gas fields off the Israeli and Cyprus coasts. This may be a gradual process, but the overall sense of the stability of the region — particularly if Suez Canal closure or de facto closure by any avoidance of it by shippers due to an Islamist government in Cairo — would be jeopardized if the area is no longer the world’s most important trade route.
6. Influence on Iran’s position: It should be considered that any decline in Egypt’s ability to act as the major influence on the Arab world enhances Iran’s de facto position of authority in the Greater Middle East. It is true that Egypt’s position has been in decline in this regard for the past decade and more, and that even Saudi Arabia has worked, successfully to a degree, to compete with Egypt for regional (ie: Arab) leadership. Without strong Egyptian leadership, however, there is no real counterweight to Iran’s ability to intimidate. During the period of the Shah’s leadership in Iran (until the “revolution” of 1979 and the Shah’s departure, ultimately to his death and burial, ironically, in Cairo), Iran and Egypt were highly compatible strategic partners, stabilising the region to a large degree. The Shah’s first wife was Egyptian. Absent a strong Egypt (and, in reality, we have been “absent a strong Egypt” for some years), we can expect growing Iranian boldness in supporting such groups as those fighting for the so-called “Islamic Republic of Eastern Arabia”.
7. US interests: A stable Egypt is critical for the maintenance of US strategic interests, given its control of the Suez; its partnership in the peace process with Israel; and so on. Why, then, would the current US Barack Obama Administration indicate that it would “support the masses” in the streets of Egyptian cities at this point. There is no question that Washington has supported moves to get President Mubarak to provide for a smooth succession over recent years: that would have been beneficial for Egypt as well as for the US. But for the US to actively now support — as Barack Obama has done — “the street” over orderly transition of power lacks strategic sense. It is true that the State Dept., and even the strategically-challenged US Vice-President, Joe Biden, have urged caution on the Egyptian people, but President Obama has effectively contradicted that approach, as he did in Tunisia, where he literally supported the street revolution against its President earlier in January 2011. If Egypt moves to anti-Western, anti-US governance, the US will be required to re-think its entire strategic approach to the Middle East, Africa, and the projection of power through the Eastern Mediterranean and into the Indian Ocean. It would give a strong boost of importance to the US Pacific Fleet, which is responsible for US projection the Indian Ocean. CENTCOM (Central Command) would need to be re-thought, as would USAFRICOM (US African Command).
8. Impact on the US positions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: The “loss” of Egypt and the questionable ability which the US could have over projection through the Suez Canal — if it came to that — would certainly impact US ability to support the final military operations it has in Iraq, and Afghanistan. A loss (or jeopardizing) of US military access via Egyptian-controlled areas such as the Red Sea/Suez would absolutely fragment the way in which the US can project power globally. Even the accession of an Islamist state in Egypt, as opposed to closure of the Suez Canal, would achieve much of this. What is clear is that the US did not adequately prepare for the end of the Mubarak era, even though it was absolutely obvious that it was coming. Now, only by luck will the US see the Egyptian Armed Forces reassert control over Egypt and introduce a new generation of leadership to bridge the transition until the re-emergence of a charismatic leader.
9. Concern over governance transition in “republican dynasties”: The recent street moves against states with protracted – ie: essentially against normal constitutional viability – power being held by autocratic leaders over long periods has become a clear message that Western democracies succeed by arranging orderly transitions of power, whether among their constitutional monarchs as heads-of-state, or among their elected governments. States which rise and fall with each successive and uneasy – often violent – transfer of power from one leader to the next, or in which autocrats attempt to impose their children as their successors without the legitimacy of a nationally-evolved monarchy or tradition, are in increasing peril as to their long-term stability. Syria, for example, in the region continues to founder although it achieved the transfer of one Assad to the next, but it does not prosper. Libya, Algeria, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Yemen, and North Korea, for example, all must consider that extended governance without legitimate options for the future encourages decline and instability.
10. Issues of Military Technology and Equipment Relations: Any move by Egypt away from its pro-US position – including, and particularly, the prospect of an administration headed by self-styled “opposition leader” Mohamed Elbaradei, would result in a major compromise of US military technology. The Egyptian Armed Forces have a major defense supply relationship with the US, particularly with high-profile systems such as late-model Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 50/52 fighters, M1A1 main battle tanks, AH-64A/D Apache and Apache Longbow attack helicopters, UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, a wide range of surface- and air-mounted missile systems, and so on. The reality is that further north in the Mediterranean, the defense supply relationship with Turkey is already compromised, by the US Government will not recognize that. Firstly, the supply relationship with Turkey means that the technology itself may be compromised to other states (Iran, Russia), to some extent, and now will almost certainly not be used to support US/NATO initiatives. In Egypt, a similar situation could prevail if the Armed Forces do not take control and exclude Elbaradei and/or other anti-US Islamists or populists.
Pres. Gamal Abdel Nasser was charismatic and transformative, but not necessarily a leader who delivered a strong new architecture to Egypt. Anwar as-Sadat gradually emerged as charismatic, and he was transformative in a very meaningful way for the country.
It took three decades of Mubarak’s invisible presence for so much of Sadat’s vision to erode, and yet Sadat’s national architecture remains intact if someone would be able to pick up the reins of real leadership. What is significant is that the Egyptian Royal Family has not re-emerged from exile to offer some hope of a restoration of traditional Egyptian values.
If the populist and vehemently anti-US ally of Iran, Mohamed Elbaradei, seizes control of the Egyptian mob — because that is his goal: to position himself at the front of a mob not of his own making — he would certainly re-introduce a great element of instability to the region, and bolster Iran’s position.
Even without directly working with Iran, merely by pushing Egypt into an investment-averse situation, Iran’s regional power would grow, and Egypt would be under the grip of a vain and shallow man far more detrimental to the nation’s long-term interests even than Mubarak the Manager. Not insignificantly, when US left-leaning television news network CNN interviewed – and essentially played softly with – Elbaradei, the former UN official was wearing a green tie, meant to be a clear signal to Iran and the Islamists.
There are other populist factors to consider, including the prospect of a junior- or mid-level officer putsch in the style of the Free Officers Movement which propelled Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser, its founder (after first putting up a staging horse, Gen. Muhammad Naguib, into office as a figurehead), to power in 1952, launching the system which is now under pressure with the decline of Mubarak.
There are many more factors to consider, but these are a few on which thinking should focus.
Analysis by Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, Washington, DC, USA.
Gregory R. Copley
Hunger is widespread and chronic in Nigeria, and its prevalence is one phenomenon that statistics cannot fully capture, not even the Global Hunger Index (GHI), does justice to it. Statistics deals with numbers, but hunger deals with humans. Relying on quantitative data alone to assess the state of hunger in Nigeria is the worst mistake anybody could make. Quantitative data and analysis only show patterns and spread of hunger without delving into the experiences of those affected and its influences on their existence in all ramifications. Therefore, as bad as the statistics are, they are still child’s play compared to the rich information from qualitative data chronicling the dehumanising experience of many poor and hungry Nigerians. Combining quantitative and qualitative data paints a horrifying picture of Nigeria’s food crisis and hunger.Twenty five (25) million Nigerians were said by UNICEF to be at high risk of food insecurity in 2023, this was a projected increase from the estimated 17 million people who were at risk of food in 2022. Humanitarian organisations fear that more people may be affected.
Hunger is the major problem affecting the Nigerian masses now. According to the Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Nigeria, Mr Matthias Schmale, “the food security and nutrition situation across Nigeria is deeply concerning. “Those who visited the Nutrition Stabilisation Centres (NSC) filled with children, said “those Children fight to stay alive”. Children are the most vulnerable to food insecurity. There is a serious risk of mortality among children attributed to acute malnutrition. The number of children suffering from acute malnutrition was estimated to increase from 1.74 million in 2022 and 2 million in 2023.Worse still, it is estimated that 35 million people are currently critically facing food insecurity.The present predicament of Nigerians never seems to be real until people realised that a “Congo” of Garri now costs between N1,900 to N2,500 naira, depending on the place you are buying from and the type you have to buy.
There is a systematic downfall in the economy, and those at the receiving end of its manifestation are the masses. Well, some may say that it is too early to judge the government of President Tinubu, but when starvation becomes a point of reference, they might just make an exception for that rule.”A government is a failure if it has not been able to fulfil its primary duties and its published agenda, it is useless if its people suffer endlessly from starvation. Recently, the video of a man who was caught in agony and lamentation attracted people’s attention. He was in the market to buy a “Congo” of rice but was told that it now costs N3,500.The man started crying, lamenting the harsh condition and confused as to what he and his family would eat. He had just N1,800 with him, and only God knows how much effort he had to put together to get that amount. Some people tried to locate the man to give him some money.
Bodija market in Ibadan, Oyo State, has a reputation for cheap consumable commodities, and the cost of food products there, is considered slightly reasonable. However, this reputation is no longer possible as basic commodities now cost even more than they could be imagined. A lady lamented having bought her usual loaf of bread for 500 naira three weeks ago, and within that period, it had skyrocketed from N800 to N1, 200 and now at N1, 500 for a loaf that is as light as foam. Beans and other cheap foods that have been saving people experiencing poverty are no longer affordable. The cost of a “congo” of beans has risen to between N2,500 and N3,500 depending on the location and type. It is not only the price of the common foods that has risen, it is the same case for other staple foods. Today, a sachet of water costs around N50, and one barely see a bag of it at anything less than N300. This leaves the people to drink unclean well water or find their drinking water through other sources.
The price increase was expected, but it seems that the progression of price increase for food items is at a higher rate than the supposed inflation. The economy is imploding and affecting the livelihood of the Nigerian citizens.First, the excessive price of petrol within the range of N700 to N1000 across the nation has an impact on the final prices. In addition, the roads have become outrageously insecure, with different stories of kidnapping, highway attacks, terrorism, and other vices.These have jointly jacked up the calculative cost of production, and the masses are paying heavily for it. The above reasons affect business, and most importantly, the irregular supply of power has become another foundational cause of the hike in prices and yet the government is still threatening to hike electricity tariff. Today, many small and medium-scale businesses do not have access to a stable power supply, and in some cases, the tariffs are so outrageous to the detriment of the business. They, therefore, resort to generating their power, which causes another extra cost.The result is that the products keep increasing in price as the costs skyrocket.
Another factor is the decline in the value of naira to dollars. The dollar is the major currency for international trade, and many of the household items in the country are imported. This means that the prices of those commodities in Nigeria are expected to increase the more with the value of dollars, causing difficulties for the citizens. So, when a market woman insults people in the market for negotiating lower prices for her wares, it is not because she is merely disrespectful but because she believes you are ignorant of the costs of putting her products on the market. What would N30,000 minimum wage do in the current economy? There is almost no average-class individual in the country as the condition affects every social stratum. Nigeria produces about 8.4 million tons of rice, but it is still not sufficient for consumption in the country. During the past administration of President Mohamadu Buhari, policies that discouraged the importation of rice and some other products in Nigeria in a bid to encourage local production were made, and that was one of the starting points of suffering and starvation in Nigeria, because the development made the price of local rice increase by 200 percent.
It is worthy of note, that such policies were a product of hypocrisy, foreign rice is not good for the poor Nigerians but foreign medical care is good for the Nigerian political elites. Currently, the prices of local and foreign rice are not too far from each other. This is because the price gap that would have been made necessary has been reduced by other local and internal issues fighting against local productions. It means that the government must make efforts to first increase the production of local items as well as ensure that there is an unhindered channel of distribution of the same across the country. Poverty cannot be eradicated without collaborative efforts between the Federal Government and the State Governments. Agricultural schemes and strategies are not the sole work of the Federal Government, as eradication of poverty should be the watchword of every reasonable government.
State-wide agricultural strategies and blueprints that would reduce the propensity of hunger and starvation in each state are important. It is a known fact that the food insecurity in Nigeria can be traceable to the relentless wave of attacks against farmers in Nigeria by armed groups in the last decade which has hindered critical food supplies and has pushed the country deeper into a devastating hunger crisis.Increased attacks against farmers across parts of the country have led to displacement of people, market disruptions and loss of livelihoods. Armed groups killed more than 128 farmers and kidnapped 37 others across Nigeria between January and June 2023 …
To be continued.
Kiikpoye Inabo
Inabo is our regular contributor from Radio Rivers, Port Harcourt.
Democracy is commonly defined as “the government of the people, by the people and for the people”. It is instructive to observe that the emphasis in the definition of democracy is “the people”. In this regard, having any electoral process without true participation of the people being sincerely involved, makes democracy authoritarian and authoritarianism is an attribute of bad governance. It is pertinent to underscore the significance of political parties in a democratic process. Political parties are no doubt, the only vehicles of social mobilisation wherein an electoral process passes through, to have people elected into political offices. The idea of godfathers deciding who become leaders of the people is not only undemocratic but ungodly. Democratic system is a social system of government where majority carry the votes and not the reverse, where godfathers impose their stooges on the people for personal gain. It has been argued that candidate nomination at party primaries has been characterised by infractions of sorts, such as the abuse of internal party democracy. For instance, there is the privatised party structure where a candidate’s nomination is guided by a mixture of personal or factional interests, while on the other hand, candidate’s nomination is considered an addition of elected executive authorities, defined as “leader”.
Party caucuses and “leaders” most often exercise power at their discretion and are unencumbered by rules, usually subverting party rules through personal directives. The imposition of candidates does not only weaken the legitimacy of candidates but also encourages the use of violence as the prevailing alternative for elections. This is because democracy ought to begin from the parties and how they choose their candidates for the election proper. If the candidates are not chosen in line with tenets of democracy, then the political space would be corrupt and no true democracy can thrive. Internal democracy is strategic to the avoidance of imposition of candidates on the party. Ideally, every candidate interested in an elective office should be given the opportunity to test his popularity within his party by a democratically conducted primary, which will produce the most popular candidate for the election proper. Any infraction to this democratic practice is injurious to democratic norms and principles.
In Nigeria, imposition of candidates on the party by some influential leaders usually called cabals and godfathers has become the rule rather than the exception. This practice has spelt doom for many political parties and even their candidates whose political ambitions had been truncated un-democratically in preference for some sacred cows. Political godfathers and party tin gods go practically low wire as they pick and chose favoured candidates and god-son at will without any concern for the good and progress of the party. Observation shows that such godfathers prefer their sorogates and criminals to popular candidates. It is worthy of note that imposition of candidates cuts across all strata of the political parties. Recent experience has shown the tendency of this evil practice to cause the disintegration of political parties and to breed bad blood and discontentment in the rank and file of the parties.
This practice is a threat to democracy as it does not give room for party members to aspire for the main election. Another dimension to the imposition syndrome is the practice whereby certain candidates who feel shortchanged in one party crossover to another party only to be given the opportunity to vie for elective posts or offered attractive jobs over and above hardworking and loyal old party members. This also breeds frustration and acrimony in the system. This development is a breach of the fundamental human rights of party members and in turn deny them the right to elect candidate of their choice. The bane of Nigeria’s party politics since 1999 is the infraction of imposition of surrogates by party godfathers which has not allowed democracy to flourish in the political parties.
The spate of imposition across Nigerian political parties destroys democratic governance. It is a practice that is capable of shaking the belief of members in their party and in its internal mechanisms. It is a direct affront to democracy which reduces the game of polities to a process of sheer selection, godfatherism, favouritism and particularism. The present development where certain politicians abandon their original political parties only to join other parties and seek governorship or other positions almost immediately is indecent. It should be completely discouraged. It is well known that the hallmark of internal democracy is that candidates should emerge from the process approved by the constitution of the party and the electoral law of our country. Whenever there is imposition, it brings about a questionable candidate and it is averse to the electoral law of Nigeria.
When imposition prevails, it would continue to scare credible people from coming into politics. This being the challenge, there would be lack of credible participants in the political space. This imposition is responsible for the sorry state of the Nigerian nation, when one looks at some of those in the parliament most times, such that those imposed are unproductive; this is why they cannot contribute meaningfully to uplift internal democracy. It is the reason many may ask; how do we expect to grow with this type of lawmakers as a nation? Such incompetent people are even found in the executive. It is possible that this class of politicians is not prepared for the task, but they love the glamour of the offices they hold and because they know how to play the dirty game, their political parties would impose them on the good ones.
Imposition should be eradicated to allow internal democracy thrive. Instead of just fostering candidates on the people, Nigerians must ensure that candidates are nominated through primaries except for cases where aspirants unanimously agree that a certain person should be their candidate. Nigerians without questionable track records should be allowed to come into leadership positions, and that is the only time the nation can see growth and development in governance. If you allow the plurality of opinions to reign, eventually someone would come out who would represent electorate better. If Nigerians, as a nation, want to enjoy the benefits of free thinking, free space, true representations and true democratic devident, then there must be room for the people’s wishes to thrive. It is proper for the umpire to provide favourable atmosphere to contest while there should be automatic ticket.
It has been observed that any time candidates are imposed, they end up being self destructive because the people you either rigged out or rigged in to do your bidding may not live up to the mark you set for them. For those who impose candidates with the aim of using them to collect money or for other less noble purposes, when they break out, you have to part ways. It is pertinent to place on record that those who have the privilege of occupying leadership positions today will one day give account of their stewardship to man and God, one cannot be man and God at the same time. Democracy thrives only when people choose their leaders by themselves. That is why Section 87 of the Electoral Act makes provisions for direct or indirect primaries; that is with a view to entrenching internal democracy and restoring power to the people.
Section 87 of the Electoral Act from sub section 1 to sub section 11 states thus; “(1) A political party seeking to nominate candidates for elections under this Act shall hold primaries for aspirants to all elective positions.(2) The procedure for the nomination of candidates by political parties for the various elective positions shall be by direct or indirect primaries. (3) A political party that adopts the direct primaries procedure shall ensure that all aspirants are given equal opportunity of being voted for by members of the party.(4) A political party that adopts the system of indirect primaries for the choice of its candidate shall adopt the procedure outlined below: (a) In the case of nominations to the position of President, a political party shall, (i) hold special conventions in each of the 36 States of the Federation and FCT, where delegates shall vote for each of the aspirants at designated centres in each state capital on specified dates.
(ii) a National Convention shall be held for the ratification of the candidate with the highest number of votes. (iii) the aspirant with the highest number of votes at the end of voting in the 36 states of the federation and FCT, shall be declared the winner of the presidential primaries of the political party and the aspirant’s name shall be forwarded to the Independent National Electoral Commission as the candidate of the party after ratification by the national convention. (b) In the case of nominations to the position of governor, a political party shall, where they intend to sponsor candidates: (i) hold special congress in each of the local government areas of the states with delegates voting for each of the aspirants at the congress to be held in designated centres on specified dates.
(ii) The aspirant with the highest number of votes at the end of voting shall be declared the winner of the primaries of the party and aspirant’s name shall be forwarded to the Independent National Electoral Commission as the candidate of the party, for the particular state. (c) In the case of nominations to the position of a senator, House of Representatives and State House of Assembly, a political party shall, where they intend to sponsor candidates: (i) hold special congresses in the senatorial district, federal constituency and the state assembly constituency respectively, with delegates voting for each of the aspirants in designated centres on specified dates. (ii) The aspirant with the highest number of votes at the end of voting shall be declared the winner of the primaries of the party and the aspirant’s name shall be forwarded to the Independent National Electoral Commission as the candidate of the party.
(d) In the case of the position of a chairman of an area council, a political party shall, where they intend to sponsor candidates: (i) hold special congresses in the area council with delegates voting for each of the aspirants at designated centres on a specified date. (ii) The aspirant with the highest number of votes at the end of voting shall be declared the winner of the primaries of the party and the aspirant’s name shall be forwarded to the Independent National Electoral Commission as the candidate of the party. (5) In the case of a councillorship candidate, the procedure for the nomination of the candidate shall be by direct primaries in the ward and the name of the candidate with the highest number of votes shall be submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission as the candidate of the party.
(6) Where there is only one aspirant in a political party for any of the elective positions mentioned in sub section (4)(a), (b), (c) and (d), the party shall convene a special convention or congress at a designated centre on a specified date for the confirmation of such aspirant and the name of the aspirant shall be forwarded to the Independent National Electoral Commission as the candidate of the party. (7) A political party that adopts the system of indirect primaries for the choice of its candidate shall clearly outline in its constitution and rules the procedure for the democratic election of delegates to vote at the convention, congress or meeting.(8) No political appointee at any level shall be a voting delegate at the Convention or Congress of any political party for the purpose of nomination of candidates for any election.
(9) Where a political party fails to comply with the provisions of this Act in the conduct of its primaries, its candidate for election shall not be included in the election for the particular position in issue. (10) Notwithstanding the provisions of the Act or rules of a political party, an aspirant who complains that any of the provisions of this Act and the guidelines of a political party has not been complied with in the selection or nomination of a candidate of a political party for election, may apply to the Federal High Court or the High Court of a State, for redress. (11) Nothing in this section shall empower the courts to stop the holding of primaries or general election under this Act pending the determination of the suit.” Under direct primary, people vote for aspirants of their choice from ward, local government areas and state levels to determine the candidate of the party.
Under the indirect mode, party members are supposed to elect delegates to represent them from the ward level up. A political party does not belong to any individual or clique of individuals. That is why imposition robs the people of the right to freely choose. That is why bad governance is common in the polity. Political godfathers continue to thrive in their business of determining who rules and worse still, who does not rule. In Rivers State, for instance, it is now a known fact that it is one godfather that determines what happens. The question therefore is; why must most powerful politicians in the party want to hijack the structure? The reason for hijacking the party structures is because they know that the election will not be free and fair and if the primaries are not free and fair, one could be rest assured that the main election cannot be free and fair because people are desperate to grab power and loot the treasury.
In Rivers State for instance, there is a faction which belongs to certain power brokers who have produced all the candidates for different elective positions and still want to remain perpetual oracles that must be consulted before anything can happen; but this is undemocratic. Politic is meant to be the social engineering for development but has rather turned out to be conduit pipe for embezzlement of public fund at the expense of the electorate without any form of accountability. The reason there are unpatriotic politicians who do not care about development of their people and locality is traceable to the single fact that they are not the choice of the people but were imposed by their god fathers for personal gain. Imposition of candidates on the electoral process must stop, if democracy must grow. The time to act is now.
Kiikpoye Inabo
Inabo is a regular contributor from Radio Rivers.
Death is inevitable. The Bible’s King David described it as “the way of all humans”. It is the way everyone will go through. It is gateway to eternal life either in heaven or hell. Death, in the words of the erudite and literary scholar, Williams Shakespeare, “is a necessary end that will come when it will come”. It is non discriminating, favours no person and works at its pace. So the occurrence of death is no more news. It is only news when it happens in an unfortunate and dastardly circumstances and least expectancy which more often causes devastation and trauma to the bereaved. Such as the transition of Dr. Herbert Onyewumbu Wigwe. Dr. Herbert Wigwe reportedly died on the night of Friday, February 9, 2024 when the helicopter he boarded crashed near the border city between Neveda and California en route to Las Vegas.
The Late Wigwe who hails from Isiokpo in Ikwerre Local Government Area of oil-rich Rivers State, Nigeria, was born on August 15, 1966. Until his uneventful demise on that Black Friday, Dr. Wigwe was Chief Executive Officer, CEO, of Access Holdings Plc. Facts gleaned from his biography revealed that the Rivers’ successful business mogul had a degree in Accountancy from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State. He also bagged a Master of Arts in Banking and Finance from the University College of North Wales (now Bangor), and a Master of Science (MSc) in Financial Economics from the University of London. The late Wigwe was a philanthropist and exceptionally diligent in his career. He started his career at Coopers & Lybrand, Lagos, as a management consultant, and later qualified as a Chartered Accountant. After a stint at Capital Bank, he joined Guaranty Trust Bank where he spent over a decade working in corporate and institutional banking, rising to become the Executive Director in charge of Institutional Banking.
He also served as the Chairman of Access Bank Ghana Limited, Access Investment & Securities Limited, Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS). He was the Chairman of Access Bank (UK) Limited until his demise. In 2016, in recognition of “his exemplary role in the society and contributions to youth development”, the Boys’ Brigade (BB) inaugurated Herbert Wigwe as State Patron for Lagos State Council. The diligence and sterling entrepreneurship qualities of the late Wigwe earned him several meritorious awards. In same 2016, he was named Banker of The Year, separately, by The Sun and Vanguard newspapers.
That same year, he founded The HOW Foundation, a non-profit organisation. In October 2022, in recognition of his enormous contributions to the socio-economic development of Nigeria, Former President Muhammadu Buhari conferred on him, a national honour of Commander of the Order of the Niger (CON).
His avowed commitment and determination to replicate his entrepreneurship prowess in the younger generation and drive sustainable development of the Nigeria’s economy within the sphere of his influence informed his decision to add value to the Nigeria’s rducational system. The deceased is the mastermind of the establishment of the Wigwe University located at Isiokpo, Rivers State. The university is expected to kick off in September 2024. Following the demise of Wigwe which is adjudged a colossal loss to Ikwerre Ethnic nationality, Rivers State, Nigeria and the business community in the United States, the Isiokpo Ancient Kingdom has announced eight days mourning period for the death of the Late Bank Chief, Herbert Wigwe. A statement by by his Royal Majesty, King Blessing A.N Wagor , the Wagidi XL,Nye Nwe Ali Isiokpo Ancient Kingdom, “ has directed eight days of mourning period” for their illustrious son whose tragic death occurred along with his wife and son in the United States of America on Friday night.
According to the statement, the eight days mourning period begins on Wednesday 14 to Wednesday 21 February 2024. All shops in the area are to be closed from 8am – 4pm during the period of mourning. The statement added.
For his part, Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara expressed shock and sadness at the news of the demise of Dr. Herbert Wigwe, his wife Chizoba, son and others, describing the incident as a monumental disaster. Governor Fubara, on behalf of his family, the State Government and people of Rivers State commiserated with the Wigwe’s family over this unfortunate incident, urging them to be comforted by God’s assurances of His love and outpouring of global sympathy on this deep pain and loss.In a statement by Boniface Onyedi, the Senior Special Assistant to the Governor of Rivers State on Media, the Governor said “there are no words to convey how terrible these losses are, and the state and indeed Nigeria will miss an unassuming, iconic and accomplished illustrious son of Isiokpo in Ikwerre Local Government Area of Rivers State.
“Rivers State and the Nation are in tears because it would be extremely difficult to understand this sweeping loss of a family involving a strong pillar, accomplished banker and philanthropist with tentacles in the education sector”, the Governor said, noting that the prestigious Wigwe University which he pioneered must not be allowed to die.”Dr. Herbert Wigwe rose to become one of the most outstanding African financial sector leaders and global figure who superintended over the impressive growth of the Access Bank Group, and also established the Wigwe University in Isiokpo, the headquarters of Ikwerre Local Government Area with a 60 per cent local and 40 per cent expatriate faculty population” the statement said. Miffed by the sudden death of one of its illustrious sons, the President General of Ogbakor Ikwerre Cultural Organization Worldwide, Eze (Barr.) Godspower Onuekwa, has urged the United States Government to unravel and explain to Ikwerre people in particular and Nigerians, the actual cause of the death of Mr. Herbert Onyewumbu Wigwe.
Speaking at the palace of HRM Blessing Wagor, the paramount ruler and Nye Nwe Ali Isiokpo, the President-General assured Isiokpo people that Ogbakor Ikwerre was behind them. He said there must be an autopsy to verify the actual cause of his death and that Ikwerre people will not sleep until the cause of his death is made known. Eze Onuekwa was quoted as saying that a day will be fixed for all Ikwerre sons and daughters to march the streets of Ikwerre land with black clothes, with all shops and offices closed. He stated that after that, Ikwerre people will visit the governor of Rivers State and ask him the next line of action before writing to President Ahmed Bola Tinubu. The President-General of the Ogbakor Ikwerre delegation to Isiokpo include, members of the National Executive Committee of Ogbakor Ikwerre, among others.
Recalling his meeting with Wigwe, Nigerian billionaire businessman, Femi Otedola, expressed shock over the death of Wigwe, and said “Wigwe hosted me and Aliko Dangote”.
Otedola, in a post on his verified X handle on Sunday, February 11, 2024, recalled how the Rivers-born prominent banker hosted him and Aliko Dangote in his new house in Lagos. He said : “I am shocked and saddened to hear of the loss of a banking genius, Herbert Wigwe, his dear wife Chizoba and first son Chizi. Exactly two weeks ago Herbie and his wife hosted myself and Aliko to dinner at his newly built home in Lagos. I will cherish and fondly remember my memories of time spent together with him over the years. Herbie, we will all miss you. Your legacy will live on forever.”
My heartfelt condolences go out to his children Tochi, Hannah and David. I pray God comforts them during this tragic time. No doubt the vacuum the death of Wigwe has created in the banking industry, economic and education sectors cannot be easily filled up. But God is All- Knowing yet offers no explanation for his actions. We will understand it better when we see him.
Igbiki Benibo
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