Business
Emerging Market Bond Handlers Recoup Losses
Emerging-Market bond investors recovered their losses from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression as a rally in debt from Argentina to Ukraine pushed JPMorgan Chase & Co’s benchmark index to a record.
The index, which tracts total returns on the foreign-currency debt of developing nations, has soared 43 per cent from its 2008 low to 445.14 Friday, the highest since the index began in December 1993, JPMorgan’s guage had dropped to as low as 311.87 in October after Mortgage losses at US banks caused global credit markets to freeze and New York-based investment bank Lehman Brothers Holding Inc to collapse in September.
“It’s probably the strongest recovery we’ve had in history” said Nigel Rendell, a senior emerging-market strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. “The question is if it’s sustainable I would be much more cautions going forward, because markets just don’t keep going up forever.”
Leaders of the world’s biggest-economies pledged more than $1 trillion in April to bolster developing-nation finances by tripling the amount the International Monetary Fund can lend to rescue crisis-stricken countries to $750 billion to shore up foreign-exchange reserves. Bonds issued by Pakistan and Ukraine have led this year’s rally after the countries received IMF financing.
While the index is at a record high, the extra yield investors demand to own emerging-market bonds instead of US Treasures is 2.58 percentage points wider than its record low on June 1, 2007. The so-called spready today narrowed 7 basis points to 4.07 percentage points.
Indonesia sold 35 billion yen ($374 billion) of 10-year Samurai bonds Friday, even after bomb blasts in Jakarta killed eight people, a banker involved in the transaction said. Hungary raised 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) in its first international sale of bonds since an emergency bailout last year.
Developing-nation bonds have recovered losses faster than global equities and commodities. The Emerging Markets index of equities in 22 countries is 42 per cent below its peak on October 2007. while the World Index of 23 developed nations has dropped 41 per cent. The Reuter/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities is down 49 per cent from its high on July 2, 2008.
The last time emerging market bondholders suffered losses of at least 30 per cent was during the aftermath of Russia’s 1998 default on $40 billion of domestic debt. The index dropped 36 per cent from March through September of that year, and took 15 months to recoup its losses. That compares from the low in October.
We had a clear panic move in September and October of last year, said Luis Costa, an emerging-market debt strategist at commerzbank AG in London.
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