Niger Republic: Need For Caution

The military intervention in Niger Republic on July 27 aligns with a prevailing pattern observed within the
Sahel region. Mali and Burkina Faso, both erstwhile reputable democratic governments, have similarly suffered from the turmoil of regime overthrow. Alarming as it may be, this recent coup represents the seventh occurrence of such military takeovers within a remarkably short span of less than three years.
Evidently, these unsettling events significantly impair the progress of democracy within one of the most economically disadvantaged regions globally. Consequently, it becomes imperative for the international community to isolate those who have seized power in Niamey and actively convey a resounding message, discouraging any inclination towards violent disruptions of legitimate governance.
Some ambitious Nigerien soldiers have quizzed President Mohamed Bazoum, citing insecurity, poor governance, and mishandling of the Islamist insurgency. The soldiers, led by Abdourahamane Tchiani, Bazoum’s commander of the elite Presidential Guard, have declared him as new head of state and have detained over 140 politicians. This adds Niger to the ever-expanding collection of armed rules in the West Africa’s Sahel region.
The accretion in military coups in Africa has raised apprehension about the erosion of democracy. Since 2010, there have been more than 40 coups and attempted plots, with 20 occurring in West Africa and the Sahel region, including Chad. Undeterred by difficult geopolitical circumstances with insurgencies, extremism, and armed revolts, Niger has experienced four military administrations since its independence in 1960, while managing to hold three democratic elections since 2011.
Niger, the largest landlocked country in West Africa, has a population of 25 million and is predominantly Muslim. The Sahara Desert covers more than 80 per cent of the nation’s land area. The country faces challenges from Islamist insurgencies originating from Mali and North Eastern Nigeria. Its many successful coups in the past three years have consistently caused global concern.
Expectedly, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), the African Union (AU), and the international community have condemned the bullish takeover of power in the West African country and have effected sanctions. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, criticised the coup, urging the need for restraint and adherence to constitutional order. He denounced any efforts to attenuate democratic governance, peace, and stability in Niger.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, chairman of ECOWAS, also condemned the iniquitous government change. We denunciate the coup and are deeply distressed about the series of coups in the region. The incessant military overthrows whittle away the progress being made towards democracy on the continent. We reject these actions and join the global community in demanding the immediate restoration of democracy in Niger and other affected countries.
Rising from an emergency meeting in Abuja, chaired by Tinubu on July 30, ECOWAS announced a lockdown of the land and air borders between member countries and Niger. The regional body has issued a seven-day ultimatum for the restoration of deposed President Bazoum to office. Furthermore, the West African body has frozen enterprises, parastatals, and commercial banks in Niger, as well as restricted the country’s access to its institutions.
Niger hazards a proxy confrontation by major powers if ECOWAS’ military threat of invasion is enforced. Russian Wagner mercenary army, active in Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Central African Republic, and Sudan, has been accused by Bazoum of backing the mutineers and disseminating misinformation about his government. Clearly, Putin and his Wagner army have a foothold in Niger. Russia’s involvement in Nigerien affairs must be checked.
Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali view any ECOWAS military incursion in Niger as a declaration of war, which could worsen the already fragile situation in the region. Analysts caution that if ECOWAS and AU fail to handle diplomacy properly, renegade regimes might align with Russia and its Wagner army. To avoid this, it is essential to implement smart and flexible diplomacy that isolates the military juntas and prevents foreign powers from gaining influence.
President Tinubu must exercise discretion when addressing the situation in the embattled country to prevent the failure of law and order. Military intervention could worsen the imbroglio and potentially lead to civil anarchy. Instead, diplomatic engagements and sanctions should be vigorously pursued to pressure the soldiers to relinquish power or communicate a timeline for the restoration of democracy.
Nigeria’s military is currently engaged in internal security operations across all 36 states, combatting various threats such as international terrorists, bandits, pirates, and secessionists. Given the country’s economic and security crises, military intervention in a foreign war, particularly with Niger, is unwise and not feasible. Urgent measures are necessary, but the military option is not viable because of its over-stretched capacity.
Frequent military incursions in the sub-region are a direct consequence of the lack of expected economic and infrastructural development under democratic rule. Foreign interests exploit this situation to trigger insurrection in Niger and other nations. The key solution remains in effective governance to hold back soldiers in barracks.
The events in Niger should serve as a wake-up call for Nigeria. It is crucial for the African giant to give precedence to legitimacy and exemplary governance. The sentiments encompassing the last general elections play up the need to address electoral fraud. The Nigerian government must recognise that military coups are still a possibility. To prevent such actions, it is essential for democracy and good governance to thrive in the country, and elections must be conducted with credibility.
Military coups in Africa have detrimental effects on stability and socio-economic development, undermining democratic governance, civil liberties, and human rights. Additionally, they erode public trust and investor confidence. To address persistent coups, African leaders must shun sit-tight mentality in office, prioritise good governance, establish robust civil institutions, uphold the rule of law, and ensure accountability. Tinubu must exercise control over his defiance and prevent any attempts of incautation in Niger.