Opinion
Beyond Recapitalization Of Banks
Quote:” Whereas Nigerian banks have seen their real capital eroded by inflation and currency depreciation, the most immediate and positive outcome expected from the recapitalisation is enhanced financial stability”
When the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on April 1, 2024, set a 24-month timeline for banking sector recapitalization, reactions ranged from optimism to skepticism. Now, with barely two quarters to the deadline of March 31, 2026, the heat on the sector is getting to feverish pitch. The new benchmark now requires banks with international operating licenses to shore-up capital bases to N500 billion, up from the previous ?25 billion minimum, while those with national operating licenses are required to up-grade to N200 billion, and regional banks to N50 billion minimum. Realistically, having been over two decades since the last recapitalization exercise which happened under Professor Charles Soludo as the CBN Governor, the current exercise is long over-due. The delay highlights a level of laxity on the side of financial regulators.
Coming more than two decades later, the current recapitalization appears push-driven by inflation, naira depreciation, or by the sheer dream for a $1 trillion economy, rather than a calculation borne by foresight. The exercise might also expose weak governance structures, as shareholders and foreign partners demand greater transparency and accountability before committing funds. But if implemented transparently, it could rejuvenate Nigeria’s banking sector and lay the foundation for sustainable economic growth. The success of the recapitalisation drive will depend upon policy consistency, regulatory clarity, and fairness. Since the last exercise in 2004 the Nigerian economy has changed both in size and dynamics, with most banks having assumed heavier financial undertakings locally and internationally, and some having expanded operations into off-shore frontiers. In 2004, Nigeria’s GDP was estimated at $135.8 billion.
Today the estimate stands at $477 billion, and is being projected to hit $1 trillion by 2030. In the face of a devalued currency, the dynamics of present-day transactions present newer levels of risk exposures, for which banks need to be adequately fortified. The increased volume of transactions following relative economic growth since 2004, require that Nigerian banks be recapitalized even in trillions of Naira in order not to be tossed off-balance. Adequate recapitalization would strengthen the banks to higher resilience against financial shocks, while enabling them to expand lending capacities to an economy starved by cash. Thankfully, 14 banks are confirmed to have hit their required threshold targets, thus are in positions to dominate the industry going forward. These include First Bank, Access Bank, Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO), United Bank for Africa (UBA), Stanbic IBTC, Fidelity Bank, Ecobank Nigeria, Wema Bank, Sterling Bank, Union Bank, First City Monument Bank (FCMB), Standard Chartered Bank, and Citibank Nigeria.
Whereas Nigerian banks have seen their real capital eroded by inflation and currency depreciation, the most immediate and positive outcome expected from the recapitalisation is enhanced financial stability. What was once a ?25 billion minimum capital base in 2004 now holds far less value in dollar terms. By compelling banks to raise fresh capital, the CBN would be reshaping the institutions to withstand global financial headwinds, manage credit risks more effectively, and maintain public confidence in the banking system. Another major benefit could be increased lending capacity. Stronger capital bases would enable banks to fund large-scale infrastructure projects, support manufacturing, agriculture, and the digital economy, and provide long-term financing that Nigeria’s development urgently needs. With Nigeria aspiring to become a trillion-dollar economy, its banks must have balance sheets robust enough to support both government and private sector investment at scale.
Besides, recapitalization is a key stress-test exercise that weeds-out weaker financial institutions to ensure that only the fittest operate in the economy. Evidently, the last exercise in 2004 transformed the sector, after merger and acquisition activities reduced the number of banks from a staggering, but ineffective 89, to 25 strong, better-capitalised banks. Followed by other reforms, the occurrence of distressed banks got drastically reduced. Before then, bank distresses got depositors stranded when they could not access their hard-earned savings. But painfully, not all outcomes would be rosy from the present consolidation exercise. In a sluggish economy and tight global capital market, raising new funds will be a daunting challenge. Even as many of the banks, who have turned to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) to issue new shares, reported good investor appetites, smaller banks with limited shareholder backings are not as lucky.
This is triggering waves of acquisition and takeover fevers, reminiscent of the 2004 era. As already being witnessed, struggling tier-2 banks which are unlikely to raise sufficient capital from the market, would consider mergers and acquisitions as the only realistic paths to survival. As insider sources reveal, the dire situation is already reshaping boardroom strategies, as may engage financial advisers and investment banks for possible deals. And as the Asset Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) sold its 34 per cent stake in Unity Bank to Providus Bank weeks ago, the fate of the former is set for acquisition by the latter, while peers like Polaris Bank, Keystone Bank, and SunTrust Bank, may go in similar directions in the rush-up to the deadline.However, other risks remain. Poorly executed mergers could lead to integration challenges, governance conflicts, and cultural clashes that may hurt the system.
While consolidation can bring efficiency and innovation, it could also lead to job losses and reduced competition, especially if regional banks are swallowed by larger, urban-based institutions. The CBN must therefore ensure that the recapitalisation process does not stifle diversity within the financial ecosystem.If successfully managed, recapitalisation could usher-in a competitive, and development-oriented banking industry, that sends strong signals to international investors that Nigeria is serious about financial reforms and economic resilience. A more stable, liquid, and well-capitalised banking system for Nigeria, will not only strengthen domestic confidence but could also attract foreign direct investment and international partnerships.But if plagued by politics, favoritism, or poor timing, it could become a missed opportunity, that leaves the economy burdened with fewer, yet not necessarily stronger, banks.
By: Joseph Nwankwor