That March Stillborn Census

After a long period of indecision, Nigeria will now hold its first census in 17 years in May this year instead of April as earlier scheduled. The Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, made this known to newsmen last Wednesday at the end of the weekly meeting of the Federal Executive Council.
The Minister explained that the decision to move the date was necessitated by the rescheduling of the gubernatorial election to March 18. He also disclosed that the Council approved a whopping N2.8 billion for the National Population Commission (NPC) to procure some software to be used for the conduct of the census.
Recall that in the July 20, 2022 editorial of this paper, we observed that the planned census initially scheduled for April 2023 was ill-timed and therefore should not have been mulled over in the first place, given that the general election had been slated for an adjoining period; moreover at a time of very significant security problems bedeviling virtually the whole country.
These situations would impact the census result adversely. Even by its acknowledgement, the NPC’s pre-census tests which were performed in some areas of the country were stymied by overwhelming safety issues in some states.
We also argued that if the present administration did not conduct the census, at least, a year before the end of its tenure, it had no reason to rush to conduct the exercise two months before exit. Expectedly, with the postponement, and the reasons adduced thereto, we have been vindicated.
It would have been inconceivable for the NPC to proceed with the process when it was apparent that the agency was yet unprepared to conduct a credible and acceptable census. To justify their lack of readiness, the NPC has just submitted and secured approval of N2.8 billion to award a contract to procure software it will use for the exercise.
We insist that even the new May date for the exercise is still unrealistic. First, the contract has to be awarded for the procurement of the software. Second, the contractor has to order and take delivery of the software. The NPC will then take delivery and begin training staff and ad-hoc personnel to be able to effectively deploy and efficiently use the software. We can conjecture that this will take not less than, at least, six months from now.
This is why we demand that the Federal Government, and indeed the NPC, should stop deceiving Nigerians on the conduct of a hitch-free census at this time. The NPC should conduct the exercise later this year or even in 2024. It was for this reason the House of Representatives advised the commission to put off the exercise to a more convenient period because of the unstable state of affairs in the country. Sadly, the commission disdained the well-intentioned advice of the House.
The horrendous security conditions are elevating concerns about the accurate count. The Federal Government should not venture on a wild goose chase. Census generally is a massive endeavour that requires a long time of organisation and planning. The truth, however, is that insecurity in the country is far more horrible than the image projected by the NPC. And given the deplorable economic condition of the nation, it is time the commission explored other means outside headcount to execute its obligation of extrapolating Nigeria’s population to intensify planning and growth.
The manual procedure being adopted by the NPC is becoming anachronistic, error-ridden, and vulnerable to manipulation. It should give way to new technologies for enumeration and data collection. According to a recent survey by the United Nations, more than 30 countries or areas are providing an option for Internet-based self-enumeration given that “new technologies contribute to improving the completeness, timeliness, and quality of census results.” That is the way forward.
Ordinarily, the plan to hold a national census would have been a welcome development. This is especially so because the planned census is coming some 17 years after the last headcount. But executing the project in May will be grossly unfitting because it will come too close to the end of the general election. The timing is wrong completely.
The government should not set innocent citizens in harm’s way for conducting a headcount. Consequently, President Muhammadu Buhari should not submit to scare tactics from the commission to authorise or discharge funds for the census. Already, the NPC management is ruing the endorsement and even anticipating that if the money required for the activity from the government is inadequate, it would get reasonable appropriation from global backers.
Clearly, the quandary at hand is a very auspicious prescription for a failure of any headcount presently, which is better circumvented than added to the many miseries that had depicted census in this country. All the earlier censuses were contentious, and it does not make any sense to carry out one just for it when all the indicators demonstrate apparent unfavourable aftermath.
The question is: Why is the NPC bent on having a census despite the odds? Is the commission out to do a good job, or just to spend the gigantic money being budgeted for the project? No doubt, a valid census is crucial for planning and development objectives for the country. But it should be executed properly and timely. The count had been put off twice in 2016 and 2018 following several controversial factors that have still not abated but intensified instead and worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic.
We think that the Federal Government should shun the idea of a census for the next government, which should tackle insecurity first before the census. A country that is facing existential challenges cannot have as one of its priorities the conduct of a national census. The current administration should discontinue what will aggregate to misadventure and waste of scarce national resources.
What should disconcert the Buhari regime is reviving the credence of a large section of citizens in the Nigerian project, resuscitating peace in areas held by criminal elements, and dousing tension in the country to foster favourable buy-in and participation. A national census now is necessarily not a preference; its conduct is entirely not feasible.