Nigeria’s Economy In Bad Shape, UNDP Admits

Amidst declining revenue and foreign exchange earnings coupled with rising debt service payments, a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report on Imagine Nigeria, has declared that the country’s economy is in very bad shape.
According to the report, to be launched, today, the COVID-19 pandemic has been detrimental to Nigeria’s economy, now made worse by a decline in revenue and foreign exchange earnings due largely to the fall in oil prices and reduced demand.
The report also noted that the decline in revenue meant an overdependence on borrowing and an increased debt service payments with more than half of the annual Federal Government revenues being used to service debts.
The report said “Beyond the short-term challenges for the oil sector, principal forex earner for Nigeria are the longer-term concerns as the world makes determined moves to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels.
“Unemployment, underemployment and their effects on poverty have remained a bane for Nigeria. If no urgent measures are deployed soon, Nigeria with its teeming population is certain to fall in desperate times. Already, the World Bank projects that about five million Nigerians will fall below the poverty line,” UNDP said.
The report regretted that the manufacturing sector which could have provided succour is also battling challenges such as poor power supply, multiple taxation and inadequate infrastructure.
“This does not mean progress has not been made in the sector as measures such as faster business registration time, improved imports and exports systems have been introduced. If more appropriate interventions are deployed, the manufacturing sector is sure to experience growth and be able to contribute more than the 12.82per cent it contributed to the economy in 2020” the report noted, adding that if agriculture sector can be more productive it can surpass the oil sector if the challenges of poor adoption of improved farming methods, inadequate infrastructure and insufficient credits are addressed.
“Like other factors, Nigeria is faced with a serious infrastructure deficit. This cuts across housing, water, power, telecommunications and transportation network”.
Reacting to the UNDP verdict, Founder/CEO, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE),Dr Muda Yusuf, noted that Nigeria’s economy is characterised by diverse economic vulnerabilities, which have had devastating effects on businesses.
He listed such headwinds with terrible effects on the economy; to include unprecedented surge in energy prices with huge adverse effects on economic players across all sectors; as well as high levels of currency depreciation and currency volatility; as well as increasingly weak fiscal space; acute foreign exchange scarcity with very profound effects on investors across all sectors.
Yusuf said that above all, Nigeria’s rising public debt and debt service burden; worsening security situation as well as elevated political risk as a result of political transition processes and activities are not helping the nation’s recovery strategies. These adverse developments are further compounded by growing fuel subsidy burden; weak infrastructure; falling investors’ confidence and depressed purchasing power.
Also speaking, Chairman, Apapa branch of Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Mr. Frank Onyebu, said, “To say that Nigeria’s economy is wobbling is to put it mildly. Sometimes, it feels like an understatement.
The economy can be said to be in a state of comatose.
“Factors responsible for this are numerous and include a hostile investment environment, complete dilapidation of infrastructure, insecurity and corruption to mention but a few.
“The economy can best be retooled by the creation of an enabling environment for businesses to thrive. The government should start by investing massively in infrastructure. The government may choose to concession some of the infrastructure since it doesn’t have currently enough resources.
“The worsening insecurity in Nigeria is a major problem for investors in the economy. Many Industrialists especially those who are in the agro-allied sector are grappling with challenges getting raw materials from the crop producing areas of our country. This has continued to negatively impact capacity utilization, turnover, cost of production and the value delivery to shareholders. Some now source raw materials from neighbouring West African countries.
“Insecurity has also created a very serious country risk and reputational problem for our country”.
The figures released by the Finance Minister, Mrs.Zainab Ahmed, during the presentation of the 2023-2025 Medium Term Expenditure Framework, painted a gloomy and disturbing picture of the state of government finances, suggesting that the government is on the brink of bankruptcy.
Debt service to revenue ratio for the first four months of the current year is over 100percent.
“The implication of this is that the actual revenue of government over the period is not sufficient to service debt.
“Therefore, financing of the operations of government – personnel cost, overhead cost, capital expenditure and even part of the servicing of the debt will have to come from additional borrowing. These portend severe vulnerabilities for the Nigerian economy.