N13.08trn Budget: 2nd Recession To Hit Economy Before Dec Ends -Buhari …N’Delta Amnesty Programme Gets N65bn

President Muhammadu Buhari, yesterday, predicted further hardship for Nigeria as he said the nation may face another recession before the end of the year, if serious and effective measures are not taken to ensure the nation’s financial security.
Buhari raised the alarm in his budget speech during the presentation of N13.08trillion budget for the 2021 fiscal year to a joint session of the National Assembly,.
He, however, vowed to pursue his administration’s goal of lifting 100million Nigerians out of poverty, even as he disclosed that the government has released N2.1trillion for capital projects in the 2020 budget.
President said about N3.85trillion has been earmarked for capital projects in the 2021 fiscal year, while the non-debt recurrent expenditure for next year would gulp N5.65trillion.
He said this was N1.15trillion higher than what was budget for capital in 2020.
The 2021 budget also has N100billion earmarked for Constituency projects of the lawmakers of both Chambers of the National Assembly, just as N128billion has been slated for statutory transfer to the National Assembly for payment of salaries and allowances next year.
This would, therefore, form part of the proposed N484.49billion transfers to other budget stakeholders.
A study of the 2021 budget breakdown as submitted by the President, indicated that the Ministery of Defense received the lion share of N840.56billion, followed by Ministry of Education, which received N545.10billion, while the Ministry of Health received N380.21billion in the 2021 Appropriation Bill.
According to the President, in line with the proposed borrowing plans to sustain the economy, the 2021 budget would operate at a deficit of N5.2trillion, just as N4.28trilion would be borrowed to finance the budget deficit.
The parameters and fiscal assumptions underpinning the 2021 appropriation, included: Benchmark oil price of $40 per barrel; daily oil production estimate of 1.86 million barrels (inclusive of Condensates of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day).
Exchange rate of N379 per $1; Gross Domestic Product growth projected at 3.0 per cent and inflation closing at 11.95 per cent.
The President said to maintain the peace in the Niger Delta region for economic and social activities to thrive, the provision of N65billion for the Presidential Amnesty Programme has been retained in the 2021 Budget.
“In addition, the sum of N63.51billion has been appropriated for the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and N24.27billion has been provided for the capital projects of the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs. These allocations should further support the development of the region by facilitating the completion of important ongoing projects, such as the East-West Road”, he said
According to him, “Based on the foregoing fiscal assumptions and parameters, total federally distributable revenue is estimated at N8.433trillion in 2021. Total revenue available to fund the 2021 Federal Budget is estimated at N7.886trillion. This includes Grants and Aid of N354.85billion as well as the revenues of 60 Government-Owned Enterprises.
“Oil revenue is projected at N2.01trillion. Non-oil revenue is estimated at N1.49trillion. As you will observe, the format of the 2021 Appropriation Bill has been modified to include budgeted revenues, no matter how small, for each MDA, to focus on internal revenue generation. Accordingly, I implore you to pay as much attention to the revenue side as you do to the expenditure side.
“An aggregate expenditure of N13.08trillion is proposed for the Federal Government in 2021. This includes N1.35trillion spending by Government-Owned Enterprises and Grants and Aid funded expenditures of N354.85billion.
“For 2021, the proposed N13.08trillion expenditure comprises: Non-debt Recurrent Costs of N5.65trillion; Personnel Costs of N3.76trillion; Pensions, Gratuities and Retirees’ Benefits of N501.19billion; Overheads of N625.50billion; Debt Service of N3.124trillion; Statutory Transfers of N484.49billion; and Sinking Fund of N220billion (to retire certain maturing bonds).
“The 2021 Budget deficit (inclusive of Government Owned Enterprises and project-tied loans), is projected at N5.20trillion. This represents 3.64 percent of estimated GDP, slightly above the 3 percent threshold set by the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007. It is, however, to be noted that we still face the existential challenge of Coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath; I believe that this provides a justification to exceed the threshold as provided for by this law.
“The deficit will be financed mainly by new borrowings totalling N4.28trillion, N205.15billion from Privatization Proceeds and N709.69billion in draw-downs on multilateral and bilateral loans secured for specific projects and programmes.”
The sum of N484.49billion was provided in the budget proposal for Statutory Transfers representing an increase of N56.46billion (or 13 per cent) over the revised 2020 provision.
It includes: Niger Delta Development Commission (N63.51billion); North East Development Commission (N29.70billion); National Judicial Council (N110.00billion); Universal Basic Education Commission (N70.05billion); Independent National Electoral Commission (N40.00billion); National Assembly (N128.00billion); Public Complaints Commission (N5.20billion); Human Rights Commission (N3.00billion); and Basic Health Care Provision Fund (N35.03billion).
In the recurrent expenditures, the budget has N227.02billion for the Ministry of Interior; N441.39billion for the Ministry of Police Affairs; N545.10billion for Ministry of Education; N840.56billion for Ministry of Defence; and N380.21billion for Ministry of Health.
On debt servicing, Buhari said the Federal Government was committed to meeting its debt service obligations.
The budget provided N3.12trillion for this in 2021, representing an increase of N445.57billion from N2.68trillion in 2020.
He said a total of N2.183trillion has been set aside to service domestic debts, while N940.89billion has been provided for foreign debt service, just as N220billion is provided for transfers to the Sinking Fund to pay off maturing bonds issued to local contractors and creditors.
Speaking on overhead costs, the President said total overhead costs of MDAs and government owned enterprises are projected to rise to N625.50billion in 2021, mainly due to the inclusion of the overheads of an additional 50 government owned enterprises.
He added that overhead provisions have also been made for newly created agencies, urging MDAs to adhere to extant expenditure controls as a measure to keep a tab on running costs.
While indicating that an aggregate sum of N3.85trillion is expected to be available for capital projects in 2021, he gave the details as: N1.80trillion for MDAs’ capital expenditure; N745billion for Capital Supplementation; N355billion for Grants and Aid-funded projects; N20billion for the Family Homes Fund; N25billion for the Nigeria Youth Investment fund; N336billion for 60 Government Owned Enterprises; N247billion for capital component of Statutory Transfers; and N710billion for projects funded by Multilateral and Bilateral loans.
He said Capital expenditure in 2021 remains focused on the completion of as many ongoing projects as possible, rather than the commencement of new ones, adding “We have also made efforts to ensure equity in the distribution of projects and programmes in the proposed budget. I will be providing the National Assembly a list of some of the most critical projects which we must work collectively to ensure they receive adequate funding.
Highlights of the 2021 budget include: Power: N198billion (inclusive of N150billion for the Power Sector Recovery Plan); Works and Housing: N404billion; Transportation: N256billion; Defence: N121billion; Agriculture and Rural Development: N110billion; Water Resources: N153billion; Industry, Trade and Investment: N51billion; Education: N127billion; Universal Basic Education Commission: N70billion; Health: N132billion; Zonal Intervention Projects: N100billion; and Niger Delta Development Commission: N64billion.
According to the President, the sum of N420billion was also budgeted to sustain the Social Investment Programme, N20billion has also been set aside for the Family Homes Fund, Social Housing Programme. N75billion Survival Fund Programme to support and protect businesses from potential vulnerabilities. N100billion to households and small businesses; N100billion to the healthcare and pharmaceutical industry; and N1trillion to large agricultural and manufacturing businesses.

By: Nneka Amaechi-Nnadi, Abuja