Of Inconclusive Elections …My Fears For 2019

When Walt Whitman once said, ‘I know nothing grander, better exercise, better digestion, more positive proof of the past, the triumphant result of faith in human kind, than a well-contested …. “election”, he was, among other variables, underscoring the completeness of a people’s right to decide who leads them.
Such a process must be dependable, free from partiality on the part of umpires and supervisors and above all else, it must enjoy the faith of the people. A process that lacks the people’s confidence, exudes partisanship and indeed betrayal of the voters’ trust cannot be the fascination Whitman extols.
Nigeria’s electoral processes in the recent past give little hope of delivering complete and conclusive results. From Kogi to Bayelsa and then Rivers, there is indeed little to hope for in 2019, because all the democratic gains that, for the first time, ushered an opposition party, in government appear to have frittered away like unwanted garbage.
What remains is outright partisanship of the supposed umpire, who now abuses the right to annul questionable poll results, to tilt the pendulum in favour of a friendly party. It is now, the easiest way to rig elections and shortchange the people.
Before now, attention was on the ballot box. So, to rig, a politician must have an army of well-trained thugs, as fit as rugby players, who would snatch the box and sprint as farther away to as possible, to a safe place, only as a Usain Bolt can. Thereafter, the stolen box is sneaked into the collation centre and counted in favour of the box robbers.
With time, ballot boxes became less attractive in preference for authentic poll results sheets. That was when election results got written in hotel rooms, long before the elections, and ballots stolen to march the concocted figures. Once such results get their way through a compromised electoral officer, through a reasonable cash reward, the elections are won and lost. In all such cases, the rigging politician must have accomplices within the electoral commission.
Today, with the awareness of the people and their new willingness to defend their vote, rigging is possible only if one ignites violence in areas he or she is less popular. For a local government with nine wards, may be unevenly shared between two contestants, with a ratio of five to four.
To win, the less popular candidate with four supporting wards only needs to secure votes of his four wards, concede defeat in three of his opponent’s three and create security breaches in the two remaining wards. With a friendly electoral officer in the commission, result of those two unfriendly wards would be cancelled and with four wards, the less popular becomes winner.
One of the easiest ways to create such security breach is to use uniformed and armed men to attempt drive some of the opposing politician’s many supporters away from the polling station, and with little resistance, some gun shots are fired into the air. Thereafter, a good make-up artiste is commissioned to create dead men and women for the social media and as evidence to the electoral body, confirming how insecure the opponent’s territory could be for free, fair and credible elections. And balm! Those elections are cancelled.
If that fails, apparently because of lack of in-roads made into the politician’s supposed safe zone; when cancelation of two wards alone could not guarantee victory, the electoral body would cancel many more and declare such elections inconclusive. Most elections declared inconclusive cannot be too distant from these reasons. And nothing an unfriendly politician can do, to sway the electoral umpire to his favour, especially if such an umpire is acting the devilish script of power from above.
From the little Nigerians have witnessed about inconclusive elections, very few have faith in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct a free, fair and credible election in 2019. Apart from lacking the capacity, integrity and impartiality needed to do right, INEC’s apparent unwillingness to distance itself from partisan ends, makes it impossible for the supposed umpires to deliver a complete electoral end as envisaged by Whitman.
These fears were confirmed last week, when Chairman of the INEC, Prof. Mahmud Yakubu accepted that the commission cannot guarantee that the 2019 elections would be conclusive, saying, “inconclusive elections did not start with me”. He then blamed such shameful ends on insecurity, saying, if major players play according to the rules, INEC would have no choice other than to return conclusive results, but cannot be blamed for declaring inconclusive results if any form of insecurity is reported.
Insecurity of any kind is an indictment on the Federal Government whose responsibility it is to ensure security of lives and property. The ordinary Nigerian should not be punished for the incompetence of the centre to do right.
This is why the confession that INEC cannot guarantee that the 2019 general elections will be conclusive should worry many well-meaning Nigerians.
For a commission chairman, under whose watch, 50 percent of elections conducted have been declared inconclusive, even with, Bayelsa, with as few as eight local government areas, cannot be depended upon to conduct a conclusive national election. And with the confession by the Chief electoral officer himself, the country requires no better reason to overhaul the electoral process.
First, the INEC Chairman needs to disqualify himself. Second, the Federal Government must properly constitute the electoral body as required by law. Third, the government in power must give sufficient reason to Nigerians to believe that the people’s vote would count.
Prior to the emergence of the current INEC Chairman, many Nigerians had canvassed that the replacement for Prof Attahiru Jega, the former Chairman of INEC be sourced from the Southern part of Nigeria since the new President is from the North, and also, since under the Jonathan Presidency, the electoral umpire was of the Northern extraction. All President Buhari needed to do, was to choose from the many men and women of integrity in the South for a replacement for Jega. But it seemed, no Southerner earned the President’s thrust for the job and so settled for Prof. Yakubu.
Now that the umpire himself has confessed to his lack of capacity to guarantee conclusive elections, now perhaps is the right time to make the desired change and give Nigerians a reason to believe in INEC.
At a time when Nigerians expect the right template to make the people’s vote count, the current crop of INEC commissioners cannot be the required solution because, from all indications, they have become part of the problem.
Nigerians are no fools. The right change can only come when the people form an ample part of the process and team up with eventual victors to work towards such change.
Results declared by a partisan INEC cannot inspire patriotic following by the people. It can only breed discontent and even civil disobedience. With so much hunger and anger in the land, denial of the people’s right to choose their preferred representatives in government shall be counter-productive, criminal at worse.
Now therefore, is the time to restructure INEC to earn the trust and confidence of the ordinary Nigerian?
My Agony is that all the gains made of our democracy have all been allowed to fritter-away by politicians who fear a harsh verdict by the same people they have failed to provide positive change.

Soye Wilson Jamabo