Vision 20:2020: Don Seeks More Realistic Proposal

A University Lecture in the Department of Economics, University of Benin,  Prof. Mike ?Obadan has faulted Nigeria’s Vision 20:2020 Agenda,? saying a more realistic proposal ?should see the country attaining the ?position of ?27th ?largest economy by 2020.

Obadan made the prediction at the research seminar series of the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) in Ibadan last Tuesday.

Presenting a paper entitled, ” Vision 20:2020; Prospects and Challenges,’’ Obadan said ?Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate by 2020 falls short of the 20th economy’s GDP by $336 billion.

According to him, a scientific analysis should have been carried out before policy makers announced the Vision’s agenda.

He said that economic projections were more dynamic than mere pronouncements and socio-economic aspirations.

“Even at the time of the official formulation of the Vision 20: 2020 in 2009, potential challenges were already manifest.

“For Nigeria to become the 20th largest economy by 2020, it needs to close a $730 billion gap, otherwise the country could become the 20th largest economy by 2035.

“Using the compound annual growth rate, by 2020, we would be the 27th largest economy, with a GDP of $864 billion in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP),’’ he said.

In the? light of? macro-economic realities, he argued that ?a much longer period should have been specified for the realisation of the proposal.

He said rebasing the nation’s GDP, as being proposed, was not a viable option as this could increase its size on paper without any change in the people’s living conditions.

He urged government to show more commitment toward ?addressing the challenges of power and corruption; saying it undermines the? document’s ?implementation.

Prof. ?Ademola Ariyo, the reviewer of the paper and lecturer in? the Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, said ?economic policies must be all inclusive with the people in mind.

“Rather than targeting GDP for 2020, start by focusing national efforts on building human capacity.

“We must desist from dissipating our national efforts on addressing the effects ?rather than the root causes.

“Visioning must be anchored on the people as the beginning and the end; that is collectively owned and managed,’’ Ariyo said.

The Tide reports that the Vision 20: 2020 stipulates that Nigeria would become one of the top 20 economies in the world by the year 2020.

Realising this requires a minimum of $900 billion in GDP and per capita income of at least $4, 000 per annum, according to the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) analysis.