Nigeria, Oil And The Future

After years of near total dependence on oil revenue, it is now imperative that Nigeria diversifies and in a hurry or face an avoidable economic crisis in another few years. This was the conclusion reached at the end of the 9th All Nigerian Editors Conference (ANEC) in Asaba, Delta State, last week.

Although experts and even laymen had over the years warned against the running of such a monolithic economy, based on oil, successive administrations did very little to diversify the economy or even attempt to add value to crude daily exported, so as to be sensitive to global  uncertainties like the situation being addressed.

Until recently, the concern was speculations on if Nigeria’s oil wells will run dry, whether Nigeria would enjoy oil for another few decades, but reality now is that luxury is no more feasible. In fact, this was one of the fears why oil bearing communities called for resource control and the repeal of the Petroleum Act.

Not only were the concerns of the oil bearing communities muscled down, even the passing of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) intended to facilitate some measure of functionality in the industry has come against the usual suicidal politics of ethnic and sectional interest.

The Niger Delta communities have repeatedly expressed the fear that they may suffer unprecedented neglect when the oil wells run dry. That their environment would have been too polluted for any meaningful farming or fishing, while the psyche of their youth would have also been distorted.

These concerns have now become true for the whole country and demands all hands to be on deck in preparing for a Nigeria beyond oil, which incidentally was the theme of the Editors Conference at Asaba.

After the speech of the Secretary to the Federal Government, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim at the conference, it was clear that Nigeria may be up against a national emergency that requires a national plan of action. Indeed, he left no one in doubt of the depleting oil economy all over the world.

It was revealed that oil which accounts for 90% of the nation’s foreign earnings would soon lose market as America, the major buyer of Nigeria’s crude says it may not be needing oil from African countries as its reserves can serve them for more than 100 years. In addition, they now have discovered shale oil in commercial quantity that would give them an equivalent of Bonny light.

To make matters worse, many African countries have also discovered oil in commercial quantity. A situation that would naturally affect Nigeria oil demand and also affect prices, foreclose alternative markets in Africa and drastically affect oil revenue that the federal, state and local governments go to share in Abuja every month.

In realisation of this situation, the Federal and some State Governments, including Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom have consciously taken steps to use their oil revenue to reposition themselves for any eventuality. They have principally taken to the development of agriculture and deserve to be commended.

The Tide thinks that the need to diversify the economy should actually become the responsibility of all and must be multi-sectoral. In the first place, it makes imperative the adoption of the right policies and practices in the oil industry if Nigeria must leverage on it to develop other sectors of the economy before dooms day.

While the times call for the practice of true federalism or fiscal federalism, Nigeria must build more petro-chemical plants and refineries to facilitate the production of viable by-products and export of refined products instead of crude. This will also help local consumption even when external demand falls. But effort must be made to develop the requisite manpower that can drive the economy to the next frontier.

Nigeria must take very serious this imminent transition and develop her manufacturing sector, value added agriculture, ICT, tourism, technology and the infrastructure that would catalyse private sector participation in the economy. Indeed, with dependable public power supply and reduced borrowing rate, Nigeria can even be better beyond oil.
But all that would happen if the issue is not treated with the usual levity or allowed to be politicised. More than ever before, Nigerians look up to the authorities to safely navigate through the threatening storm to a better Nigeria, on the other side, even as we expect everyone to co-operate with government at every level.