Awaiting A Miracle …The Fairy Dream of a New World

Anytime today or late Wednesday, the world shall behold or reject a new President of the World Bank by name Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala or Prof Yong Kim. The former is Nigeria’s Finance Minister and coordinating minister of the economy while the latter is a renowned health expert and nominee of the United States of America (USA)

Considering the measure of passion injected into the lobby for the position, especially among the emerging economies, it would be a major disappointment should the vote by the bank’s  board go the way of Yong Kim, a Korean-American, whose credentials on development economy, finance and banking are weightless against what Nigeria’s Okonjo-Iweala parades.

By Friday, the  race had become one between just two, on account of  the withdrawal of the Brazilian nominee, Dr Jose Antonio Ocampo, over lack of support from his home country, Colombia, which seems more interested in the presidency of the International Labour Organization (ILO), than the World Bank.

However, before throwing-in the towel, Ocampo rallied support for the virtues of merit, integrity, fairness, leadership and indeed competence which he said characterized the candidacy of Nigeria’s Finance Minister, and indeed, expectation of the emerging economies of the world.

A Director of Economic and Political Development at the Columbia University in New York, Ocampo  had expressed doubts over the neutrality of the selection process, and  expressed fears over its eventual outcome. “We did not believe the selection process had been conducted in a fully open, transparent and merit-based fashion, but it had established a strong precedent”.

On this column, April 2, 2012, titled World Bank Presidency: The Odds Against Okonjo-Iweala, My Agony had raised the alarm that International politics, America’s greed and indeed precedent, rather than merit, competence, integrity and indeed leadership will determine the choice of a world Bank President.

Our view: “If the choice of President of the World Bank were to be based purely on the integrity, experience,  expertise, merit and popularity of contending players, without an iota of doubt, Nigeria’s coordinating minister of the economy and Minister of Finance, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala should succeed Mr. Robert Zoellick whose tenure expires June, 2012. But the world today is used to doing without the best and there are yet no positive signs that the choice of a world bank President will be any different”.

In fulfillment of this view and in spite of the impressive credentials of Okonjo-Iweala, the massive support her candidacy enjoys among the emerging economies and indeed the withdrawal of one of the contestants, Ocampo in support of  Nigeria’s Finance Minister, it thus, appears that the  choice of Yong Kim has been pre-determined.

For instance, while, all African directors of the bank voiced support for Okonjo-Iweala during last Friday’s straw polling, the US, Canada, Japan and all European Union countries were seen to be backing the American nominee against popular expectations that the selection process will be open and transparent and the outcome of the interviews be made public.

The last straw that broke the Camel’s back and which now leaves Nigeria’s hope for a World Bank Presidency hinging only on a miracle, came with the defection of Russia from Okonjo-Iweala’s support base. With Russia going the way of the US, the gains derivable from the exit of Ocampo appear minimal.

In fact, as it stands, the battle is now drawn between support for the US, Europe and Russia as against Africa and a divided group of emerging economies like China, Brazil, which nominated Ocampo in the first instance and indeed India.

This scenario is predictable, even understandable, for the same reasons this column advanced on April 2nd, this year, as earlier predicted.

“When on April 20, 2012, the 187-member nations’ board will sit to determine, by consensus, a choice for president of the world Bank, more than the amiable credentials of the Nigerian candidate and the two others will be in consideration”.(My Agony)

Strangely, the vote needs not wait till then as there are indications that the choice could have been made already and merely waiting to be made public either today or as the New York Times has speculated as early as Wednesday. This means the US is close to a consensus if not so, already.

It was for fear of this  in the first instance, that My Agony predicted; “the biggest hurdle shall be the seeming oath taken by Europe and the United States since the inception of the bank after World War II,… That understanding allows Europe headship of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) while, the US has kept the World Bank ever since”.

Worse still, US Secretary of Treasury, Tim Geither virtually fore-closed likelihood of his country bending to global pressure needed to give Okonjo-Iweala a go at the World Bank Presidency, when, he was quoted as saying, a fortnight ago, “the US has no problem with either Okonjo-Iweala or Ocampo, but should the presidency of the World Bank be allowed to go to a non-American, it will be difficult to get the US congress to pay US commitments to the bank.” And the US is the major shareholder of the World Bank upon which the survival of the bank and its development projects depend.

Bottomline: It would be absurd, even unthinkable for emerging economies to depend on funds from the World Bank for their development and at the same time, insist on managing such funds. At normal times, this is a possibility but not in an election year, when, the Republican fray is still fishing for more reasons bordering on outsourcing of American honour, to slam US President Barack Obama.

As it is today, the failure of the US nominee, Yong Kim  has been made to appear to be failure of not just President Obama or his Democratic Party but indeed the United States of America. This is the blackmail instrument which will render difficult any attempt to do right, from global perspectives and commit political suicide before American voters.

More importantly, “if the bank’s succession history since 1944 is anything to go by, then it will require more than a miracle for the US to bend or for Europe to betray its major ally in the US, for, wait developing nations.” This, as we canvassed earlier, “is most unlikely, given the imperatives.

This column then suggested:

‘The only solution, methinks, is to shift the conversation to the US political scene and make it an issue, at least to feel the pulse of American voters, whether Republicans or Democrats. Now, all that is late.

However, no matter how unpleasant, the eventual outcome might be come Wednesday, or even later today, Nigeria’s Okonjo-Iweala  is both a winner and history maker if for nothing else, for going this far in pricking global conscience in pursuit of merit and against the double standards of world powers not doing what they often preach.

Happily, Okonjo-Iweala alluded to that while thanking Ocampo for his support when she said, “I am proud that Dr Ocampo and I have helped make history by changing the way that World Bank Presidential elections are contested”. Unfortunately, that was in hope that the board would vote, in a transparent manner, the right choice on April 20, this year, not knowing that a decision might have been reached and merely awaiting official announcement today or Wednesday.

My Agony is that the scenario now leaves Okonjo-Iweala with only a tiny hope of a miracle. A miracle which will see the US and her powerful European allies and even Russia, make U-turn to support one from the emerging economies like Africa’s lone candidate. This, no matter Okonjo-Iweala’s amazing credentials, seems unlikely, today.

Soye Wilson Jamabo

Okonjo-Iweala