Who Becomes Liberia’s President?

After a 14-year civil war, where an estimated 250,000 lives were lost, besides the mass trail of physical destruction and human displacements, peace eventually returned to Liberia in August 2003.

Two years later, precisely in 2005, the war-ravages country, noted for its diamond riches, had its first post-crisis democratic elections, which was closely supervised by the U.N.

Mrs Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, a Harvard-trained economist and a former World Bank staff, emerged as the nation’s new president, beating other rivals, among them, world’s football star — George Opong Weah.

She was sworn into office on January 16, 2006, aged 76 years.

At 72, Mrs Johnson- Sirleaf, is standing for a re-election in the October 11 presidential election, apparently going against her earlier pledge in 2006 to serve only a single term.

Explaining her change of mind sometime in June during a media chat, Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf said that she wanted to consolidate on the gains of the last six years, adding that there had also been some local and international pressures on her to run again.

Political analysts say that some achievements of the Liberian president so far, include the sustenance of peace and stability, social and economic developments in the country, as well as international debt forgiveness for the nation.

Women’s increased participation in partisan politics has also been identified by some analysts as a high point of her tenure.

Her critics and political opponents, however, say that there had been high unemployment rate in the country, while poverty, decayed infrastructure and corruption had been on the ascent during her tenure.

Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf, nonetheless, has gone down into history as Africa’s first female president and this sentiment has continually attracted much international goodwill and support for the 164-year-old republic.

Her opponents in the presidential election include Mr Winston Tubman, who shares a ticket with Weah under the Congress for Democratic Change and Charles Brumskine of the Liberty party.

Brumskine, a lawyer and former Senate leader, had placed third in the 2005 election, losing by about six per cent of votes behind Johnson-Sirleaf.

Nevertheless, political analysts are divided on the prospects of Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf pulling off a victory against her political rivals amidst reservations in some quarters about her ability to fight corruption and her perceived reluctance to implement the recommendations of the country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

Among others, the commission had recommended a ban on all key actors in the country’s 14-year political crisis in the holding of any public positions. Ironically, Johnson-Sirleaf is on the list for alleged support to former President Charles Taylor’s group that ousted Samuel Doe from office.

Johnson-Sirleaf admitted supporting and contributing financially to Taylor’s revolutionary group but insisted that they both fell apart due to Taylor’s excesses in the country and his forays into affairs of countries in the West African sub-region.

Taylor is currently facing trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for alleged war crimes during Sierra Leone’s civil war.

Somehow, however, Johnson-Sirleaf last Friday got a boost to her campaign, when the Swedish Academy named her as a joint winner of this year’s Nobel Prize for Peace.

She won the prize jointly with a fellow countrywoman and civil rights activist – Lehma Gbowee and Yemen’s Tawakkul Karman, another rights activist.

The Nobel Prize, no doubt, added to her string of awards in recent times, in recognition of her contributions to the continued stabilization of the country for development.

The announcement of the award did not sound funny to her political rivals and Tubman quickly called it “a coup”, which though “will not make any difference in the presidential election”.

The Liberian National Electoral Commission (NEC) says that an estimated 1.8 million people have been registered to vote in the general elections out of which, about half are women.

Mr Paul Harry, a Liberian journalist, says that the political landscape remains unclear in the buildup to the election even as candidates continue to woo the electorate to the last hour.

“Johnson-Sirleaf stands a better chance in the first round of votes because of the many opposition parties but the race will be tighter if it moves into a run-off with either Tubman or Brumskine,” he says.

Analysts say that though the voting strength of women in the country is remarkable, they cannot say for sure if all the women will line up behind Johnson-Sirleaf as they did in 2005.

Johnson-Sirleaf’s chances, however, appear compounded her major opponent — Tubman’s choice of Weah, as his running mate.

Weah had been a tough opponent for Johnson-Sirleaf in the 2005 presidential election. Out to redress an earlier image as being unread, despite being an accomplished world soccer start, Weah recently returned from a school in the US brandishing a certificate, which now shows him as lettered.

Tubman, 70 and a Harvard-trained lawyer, does not seem a lame duck in the race as he is also holding his own among the electorate. He is the grandson of late William Tubman, a former President of the country.

Ahead of the elections, political parties and the candidates have signed a code of conduct intended to ease tensions and acrimonies before, during and after the elections.

No doubt, the elections have been of keen interest to the international community, which has not forgotten in hurry, the pains and anguish of the country’s civil war.

Ellen Loj, the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), says that the campaigns have been relatively peaceful so far.

“This is the opportunity for the people of Liberia to conclusively move away from the country’s violent past; from bullets to ballots and to entrench democratic governance, setting a shining example in the West African region.’’

In his encouraging words to the country, the UN Secretary-General Ban ki-moon said: “The success of the elections and the peaceful inauguration of a new administration will be critical to the consolidation of the tremendous progress the country has made over the past eight years.’’

Ban urged political parties and candidates to explore the “democratic space” in all conflict resolutions.

The NEC Chairman, Mr James Fromayan said ballot papers had been received for the elections since the end of September and have been distributed accordingly.

He said that 4,457 polling places, spread across the 1,780 polling precincts in the country would be effectively supplied with the electoral materials by October 10. Aside from the presidential seat, 15 senatorial and 81 legislative seats are for grabs during the general elections.

In the election time table, Nov. 8 has been fixed for any possible runoff in the presidential race.

With a guided optimism, the world is watching events as they unfold in Liberia, hoping that a successful election will be conducted to usher in the nation’s newest crop of leaders.

Egwa writes for the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN)

Oche Egwa