Food Scarcity: Perils Ahead

Vincent Ochonma

The current storm of food scarcity across the world is increasingly drawing a fresh attention to the postulation of the English clergyman and economist, Thomas Malthus over 200 years ago.
In his words: “assuming then my postulation as granted, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence only increases in an arithmetical ratio…”.
In the same vein, Paul Ehrich stated years ago that the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programme embarked upon now.
But because of the tremendous agricultural and industrial changes made during the 19th century, such as the discovery of new mineral resources, improvement in transportation which allowed for more efficient trade and remarkable increase in crop yields, especially in the developed world, the early scholars’ predictions were either neglected or rejected.
Today, with the serious imbalance between the world population and material resources, the predictions are being resurrected. The global population has risen from 4.4 billion in 1980 to about 6.5 billion in 2007. By 2050, it is estimated that the world population will hit nine billion.
Apparently, the 50% food production increase is not catching up with the population explosion. Thus, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Programme; 854 million people do not have enough food for active and healthy life.
Faced with rising food prices which have made basic staples such as rice, corn, wheat, and soya bean unaffordable for many people, experts say that the worst is yet to come.
Already, the food crisis situation has, in recent times, triggered revolts and instability in many parts of the world including Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mauritania, Mozambique, Senegal, the Ivory Coast, Cameroun, and Haiti where a crowd of hungry citizens once marched through Port-au-Prince throwing stones and bottles and chanting, “we are hungry.”
But why have food prices continued to gallop? The factors responsible for the soaring food prices are numerous. They include global warming, population explosion and general food scarcity. Others are bad weather in key food producing countries, the increase in land allocated to bio-fuels, and wars which have made millions of people in refugee camps dependent on food aid.
In the particular case of Nigeria, the food crisis is not a recent phenomenon. It began as agriculture ceased to be a leading sector in the country’s economy, following the discovery of oil and the subsequent boom arising from its products. While the contribution of agriculture to the GDP amounted to 65.39 per cent up till the early 1960s, it declined to 34.06 per cent between 1973 and 1974. And since then, it has continued to drop abysmally.
Even with several programmes and policies, it has been very difficult to effect meaningful changes in agricultural production in the country.
In 2008, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua set up a ministerial committee under the chairmanship of Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to find a solution to the increasing prices of wheat and wheat flour. And a plan was made to release, at appropriate intervals, grains from strategic reserve so as to meet any expected shortfall and reduce the prices of staples in the country.
To meet food security challenges for a period of four years, according to media reports, government also mapped out 16 different strategies including promotion of large scale commercial agriculture between 500 and 3000 hectares, encouragement of formation of specialised co-operative societies, development of agricultural land mapping programme and self-sufficiency plans for food crops, production of fertilisers in the country, and the rehabilitation of degraded irrigation infrastructure under the Rivers Basin and Rural Development Authorities to ensure all-season farming.
In spite of these efforts, the fact is that the subsistence type of agriculture which is characterised by low productivity still predominates. Food production statistics are not available. Credit is difficult to obtain. Illiteracy is high and infrastructure is lacking. And worse still, it is hard to assess the desire or willingness of Nigerians to respond to increased agricultural production.
In the face of these constraints, the unsettled question to be addressed is; what does it take the country to rise above its food crisis?
It has become clear from historical experience that success depends on partnership between government and the people. It is the people who try out new crops or invest in agricultural projects. They do this whenever incentives are present.
Government at all levels must recognise that food production is a major priority item that calls for definite policies and programmes. In such policies and programmes, it should be emphasised that government must provide basic infrastructure, establish production credit banks, build mechanisation centre (for supply of machinery, insecticides, and fertilisers), as well as providing technical advice to farmers.
Provision should also be made for the development of agricultural research base which will be essential in the generation of new technology and ideas for agricultural production.
Food production research must be developed for mainly two groups, namely the small-scale farmers and the large-scale commercial farmers.
The small-scale farmers require improved technology that is useful for them, because they will perhaps continue to feed the rural population. Meanwhile, modern commercial agriculture must also be developed in the country to feed its increasing population.